ASSESSMENT ABOUT THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON GEO-HYDROLOGICAL PHENOMENA: CENTRAL CAMPANIA CASE STUDY

Abstract

The Italian law 49/2010, implementing the EU Directive 2007/60/CE, requires that potential effect of climate changes (CC) on geo-hydrological hazards must be taken into account for the three established planning stages and their future updates. To this aim, the Basin Authority of Central Campania (BACC) and ReMHI Research Division of CMCC Foundation started a collaboration whose main results are reported in “Hydrological Section” of Geo-hydrological Setting Plan of BACC and widely explained in this contribution. Firstly, brief remarks about future projected variations, on seasonal scale, for cumulative precipitation and mean temperature estimated through high resolution climate models are provided; after, the performances of the adopted climate models in reproducing the extreme values of subdaily precipitation are investigated; finally, expected changes in subdaily extreme values of precipitation on medium and long time horizon, under two different scenarios are displayed and such results are superimposed to landslide/flood hazard maps currently carried out disregarding the variations in rainfall patterns potentially induced by CC.