CLIMATE CHANGES SCENARIOS AT 2021-2050: HOW MUCH WATER WILL BE AVAILABLE IN PO RIVER BASIN?

Abstract

In the last decades the climate over Po river basin shows changes in precipitation and temperature and projections indicate that in future the area will experience a decrease of total precipitation, with the exception of the Alps in winter while the frequency of extreme precipitation events and temperature are expected to increase. All this, will result in a reduction of water availability in summer and an increasing of floods hazard that may significantly impact on activities and citizens located within Po river basin. Here, the question “what should we expect for future Po river discharges?” is addressed through a numerical climate/hydrological/water balance modeling chain. The results provide an estimate of the climate change impacts on Po river discharges under the IPCC emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the period 2021-2050 with respect to the control period 1982-2011: projected discharges are expected to reduce in summers, thus droughts will be more likely to occur, while discharges will increase in winters, coherently with the precipitation and temperature anomalies obtained from the climate simulations. The methodology presented here can be applied to other Italian river basins to prevent the risk of water crisis, to promote hydraulic security and mitigate the potential impacts of future droughts to energy and agriculture sectors.