THE ITALIAN LONG-TERM STRATEGY ON REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS: EMISSION SCENARIOS AND OBSERVED HISTORICAL TRENDS

Abstract

In January 2021, the Italian Ministry of the Environment Land and Sea published the Italian Long-term Strategy on Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions. The document is the result of the collaboration among different Ministries, launched in 2019, and it is largely based on the studies and analyses of a technical working group composed by ISPRA, RSE, GSE, Politecnico di Milano, ENEA and CMCC. Each subject contributed with its own tools and skills in order to analyse the broadest possible spectrum of the implications of the Strategy. The analysis of the expected emission trends is particularly important in connection with what has been observed throughout the historical time series of data available since 1990. In this way it is possible to highlight the trends already underway, identify the main drivers of emissions and, consequently, have a better understanding on the emissions that will be the most difficult to be reduced in the future in order to reach emission neutrality by 2050, the final goal of the Italian Strategy. The analysis highlights that those sectors that are the most emissive today are also those for which strong reductions are often already happening and may also be expected in the forthcoming years thanks to the policies adopted so far (e.g. heat and electricity generation) and technological developments (e.g. transport and buildings). This does not mean that no challenges have to be expected for these sectors, but that with adequate policies supporting the deployment of technologies which are already available, there is the real possibilities to neutralize the emissions. Other sectors, which today are responsible for a smaller amount of emissions, could prove to be more problematic over the years to come (e.g. industrial processes, f-gas, and agriculture), because there are intrinsic limits and no strong policies in place yet. Emission intensity of industrial processes and f-gases does not show a clear descending trend in past years and this is not supposed to change in the future, without moving towards a more circular economy and major technological advancements those emissions may not be reduced. Emissions from agriculture only account for 7% at present in Italy, but there seems to be limited room for improvements given that most of them came from biological processes of livestock. Some policies can be implemented especially with regards to animal dietary change and manure management also considering the biogas potential production. At the current state of knowledge, it also appears that some amount of CO₂ capture and storage systems will be needed to achieve net zero GHG emissions, although much will depend on the capacity of natural sinks and the evolution of the entire economic system. The Land use, Land-Use Change, and Forestry sector emissions and sinks could be heavily affected by climate change in the forthcoming years and since this sector is going to play a critical role in the achievement of climate neutrality, it is crucial to adopt policies that can improve carbon sequestration; in order to do so upmost efforts should be paid to limit wild fires.